LANSING, Mich. — Talk of a Rick Snyder for president campaign has surfaced sporadically among pundits for the last two years. But it's the Michigan governor himself who is now fueling the speculation.
In the past, Snyder wouldn't rule it out, but wouldn't say he was considering it, either. In the last week, as Snyder has made a series of public appearances around the country, that's changed.
A spokesman told the Detroit Free Press
on Saturday the governor "has not made any decisions about entering the field at this time." And Snyder told Bloomberg News in California on Monday it's something he's looking at and he will make a decision "in the next couple of months or so."
The buzz about a possible Snyder bid for the GOP presidential nomination is expected to ramp up further when he conducts a series of media interviews while attending an event as a guest of Michael Bloomberg in New York on May 8.
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But it's not clear whether Snyder — who says the Oval Office speculation brings positive attention to Michigan and its economic rebound — is nearly as serious about running for president as he is about raising the state's profile, or his own. If Snyder is serious, he's seen by most national pundits as an extreme long shot.
Snyder has raised no money for a presidential bid. He has no national organization.
And as a governor who has pushed for both the expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act and a major road funding tax increase in Tuesday's special election, is generally seen as too moderate to fare well in most of the early Republican primaries and caucuses.
Anyone who dismisses the idea out of hand, however, should be reminded how absurd the idea was in December 2009 — before Snyder went on the air with his "one tough nerd" Super Bowl ad — of an unknown businessman who had never run for political office winning the governorship.
Since then, Snyder has pulled off some other unlikely feats, including pushing an unpopular tax on pensions through the GOP-controlled and tax-averse Legislature and getting approval from lawmakers for a $194.8 million state contribution to the Detroit bankruptcy settlement.
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Gov. Rick Snyder shakes supporters hands while on stage with his wife Sue
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"I continue to believe that Governor Snyder can be a viable candidate for the nomination," said Charlie Black, a political strategist who counts former Presidents Ronald Reagan and George Bush among the Republican candidates he has advised. Black, who cites Detroit's nascent recovery from bankruptcy as a strong Snyder talking point, said, "The race is wide open, and I actually expect more than one successful Midwestern governor to compete."
Others aren't so sure of Snyder's chances.
"I really don't know much about Governor Snyder, which probably says something in itself," said Stuart Rothenberg, founding editor of the nonpartisan Washington, D.C.-based Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report. "I start out skeptical."
Snyder won the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Michigan by winning a single, five-way primary in which all the other candidates were more conservative than he was. It can't work that way in the presidential sweepstakes, which features a series of state-by-state contests around the country.
Asked about a realistic path to victory for Snyder, some pundits point to a scenario under which several candidates pick up support of between 20% and 40%, each controls a majority of delegates in fewer than eight states and there is a brokered convention.
Jessica J. Trevino, Detroit Free Press
Gov. Rick Snyder helps a Royal Oak, Mich., family with cleanup after the August more
But skeptics point out that hasn't happened in decades, and they question why a deadlocked convention would turn to Snyder — not known for his charisma — as opposed to a new face who would stir more excitement, or a tested and nationally known candidate, such as Mitt Romney.
Some observers think Snyder, while telling Michigan's story in a positive way, also wants to raise his own profile, raising the likelihood he could be chosen as a running mate or for a cabinet post in the next administration. Snyder advisers reject those suggestions.
Snyder's travel costs are being offset through funds raised by a recently formed nonprofit headed by two Michigan businessman and Snyder friends, former state party chairman Bobby Schostak and Bill Parfet, the wealthy head of MPI Research in Mattawan.
The GOP presidential schedule starts in January with caucuses in Iowa, a state where Snyder has connections because he worked there, in Sioux City, when he was a top executive at Gateway Computers in the 1990s — though he actually lived just across the border in South Dakota.
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"We'd love to have Rick come to Iowa," said Jim Wharton, a former Sioux City mayor who worked for Snyder at Gateway and penned an op-ed piece touting Snyder that appeared in the local newspaper on Sunday.
"Gov. Snyder has turned Michigan around and done it with a coalition of conservatives and liberals," Wharton said in the op-ed. "It seems our Michigan friends believe that jobs, education and attention to the under-served are fairly important, and that's where Rick has chosen to make his mark."
That's stronger praise than Snyder receives from many political quarters in Michigan, where numerous GOP congressional districts have voted to oppose the sales tax hike and road funding measure he is pushing. And it's unlikely Snyder could be elected Republican Party chairman, due to an active Tea Party wing that has opposed several Snyder initiatives.
"Is he really going to put a serious campaign together and spend time campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire?" asked Rothenberg. "He is very unknown to most Republicans nationally, and he has a long way to go before he becomes a factor in the race."
Snyder's Iowa ties raise the possibility of him making a play for a strong showing in the caucuses, or perhaps raising his national profile by competing in the Iowa Republican Straw Poll in Ames in August.
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Snyder handlers say that since no decision has been made about whether the governor will enter the race, no such strategic decisions have been made, and no trips to early states such as Iowa or New Hampshire, whose primary is held in late January, are scheduled.
Snyder's name was a last-second addition to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted April 23-26 of how Iowans view potential Republican candidates, said PPP director Tom Jensen.
Snyder received a rating of 4% favorable and 10% unfavorable, with 86% unsure. That made him easily the least recognized of 18 potential candidates included in the survey.
"Snyder probably does have a story to tell," but he's not conservative enough for Iowa, where the polls show many Republicans have already found candidates they like, Jensen said.
"It may be too late for Snyder to really make an impact there," he said. And "he's going to be a much more serious contender in New Hampshire, than Iowa."
Jensen also questioned whether Michigan is perceived nationally as an economic comeback story and said running a Republican campaign based on "the good things he did for Detroit (is) a very hard sell."
That could get back to why Snyder is fueling the speculation, rather than moving to tamp it down.
"I'm more active making comments (about the presidency), but that also aligns well with telling the Michigan story," Snyder told reporters in Lansing on Wednesday.
"I was out telling the Michigan story and the response was great. What I did find is people had old perceptions of our state. People kept on thinking of the broken Michigan, of the broken Detroit, and when they understand what's going on, people are very excited."
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